Diesel could fall below P130 as another rollback takes shape

National

ROLLBACK—a phrase that sounds like music to motorists’ ears—is once again expected at fuel stations, with another round of price cuts likely next week as global oil markets continue to ease amid softer geopolitical tensions.

According to a Philstar report, an oil industry source said that after four trading days in the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), diesel prices may fall by about P17 to P19 per liter, while gasoline could decline by roughly P2 to P3 per liter.

The projected movement shows the ongoing removal of the “war premium” previously embedded in oil prices during periods of heightened geopolitical risk. The source noted that easing tensions in the Middle East have contributed to weaker crude pricing.

A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is currently in place, while US President Donald Trump has said a deal with Iran is expected “very soon,” following talks brokered by Pakistan.

If current trends continue through the final trading session, diesel prices could drop below P130 per liter. Final price adjustments will depend on the latest MOPS trading data and are set to take effect on April 21.

This follows an earlier round of government-directed price cuts implemented by oil firms under regulatory pressure. Diesel, gasoline, and kerosene prices were reduced by at least P20.89, P4.43, and P8.50 per liter, respectively.

Despite successive rollbacks, fuel prices remain elevated compared to previous years. Department of Energy (DOE) data show diesel in Metro Manila and other highly urbanized areas averaging around P147 per liter, while gasoline stands at about P116 per liter.

Energy Secretary Sharon Garin cautioned against expectations of a return to much lower fuel price levels.

“I don’t want to be a downer, but we owe it to the public to be realistic,” Garin said in an interview with The STAR’s online program “Truth on the Line.”

She added that even if global oil markets stabilize, a return to levels such as P50 or P60 per liter is unlikely in the near term due to lingering supply disruptions and infrastructure constraints in key producing regions.

Garin also said the DOE has begun issuing indicative guidance on minimum rollbacks and maximum price movements despite the Oil Deregulation Law, which liberalizes the downstream oil industry but allows government intervention during emergencies.

On the policy side, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has issued an executive order suspending excise taxes on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and kerosene for three months. Diesel and gasoline are not included in the measure.

Under Executive Order 114, signed on April 16, excise tax rates will automatically revert if conditions such as a drop in Dubai crude below $80 per barrel are met, or upon expiration of the suspension period. The DOE earlier certified that the 30-day average reached $93.71 per barrel.

The measure is expected to cut LPG prices by about P3.36 per kilogram (around P37 per cylinder) and kerosene by P5.65 per liter. Finance officials noted the diesel excise tax alone accounts for about P6 per liter.(MyTVCebu)