Dryer months ahead as ‘very strong’ El Niño nears

National

By Patricia Andrea Pateña-Matheu

A DRIER stretch lies ahead for the Philippines, with Pagasa forecasting a “very strong” El Niño next month and further reductions in rainfall through the first quarter of 2027.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said the phenomenon is expected to intensify by the first half of next year, with potential effects on rainfall and water resources.

“This situation needs to be taken seriously, particularly because of its potential impacts on rainfall and water resources,” Pagasa administrator Nathaniel Servando told reporters at a press conference, as quoted by Philstar.

Pagasa’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said the warming has reached an unprecedented level in terms of intensity.

Around 45 provinces had already experienced rainfall deficits as of Monday since El Niño began this year, according to Pagasa.

The agency expects rainfall to fall below normal across Luzon, Visayas and Caraga in October, while Northern Luzon and Southern Mindanao are projected to receive near-normal rainfall.

The decline is expected to become more pronounced in the succeeding months. Pagasa forecasts rainfall to be significantly lower than normal in November, followed by a significant reduction in December. The drier conditions are expected to continue through the first quarter of 2027.

The weather pattern is also expected to coincide with a relatively low number of tropical cyclones entering or developing within the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR).

From October to December, Pagasa expects only one to two tropical cyclones to enter or develop inside PAR. By January 2027, up to one tropical cyclone is expected, while there is a slim chance of another entering or developing in February and March.

The Philippines has previously experienced strong to very strong El Niño events, including those in 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2017.

Pagasa said it will support mitigation efforts, particularly in sectors that could be affected by reduced rainfall, including agriculture, water supply, energy and public health.(MyTVCebu)