How bad could El Niño get? Pagasa warns of prolonged dry spell

National

MONTHS of reduced rainfall could lie ahead for the Philippines as a “very strong” El Niño continues to intensify, raising the risk of dry spells and drought across several parts of the country through 2027.

The weather phenomenon, which is now prevailing in the tropical Pacific, is expected to peak toward the end of the year and persist through the first half of 2027, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said.

“El Niño increases the likelihood of rainfall deficits, which may result in dry spells and drought in several areas of the country,” Pagasa dministrator Nathaniel Servando said in an advisory.

Servando cautioned, however, that the weather pattern would not rule out episodes of heavy rainfall, as tropical cyclones and other rain-bearing weather systems could still affect the country.

Pagasa’s latest drought assessment for October showed that five provinces were already experiencing meteorological drought, while 11 were under dry spell conditions and 10 had recorded dry conditions.

The outlook points to further deterioration in rainfall conditions, with below-normal to way-below-normal precipitation expected across most parts of the country. Several provinces could also experience meteorological drought or dry spells by the end of November.

Warmer-than-average temperatures are likewise forecast over most areas.

Adding to the weather concerns, three areas are expected to register danger-level heat indices today. Coron, Palawan is forecast to record the highest reading at 43 degrees Celsius, while Dipolog in Zamboanga del Norte and Butuan City in Agusan del Norte are both expected to reach 42 degrees Celsius.

Pagasa classifies heat index readings between 42 and 51 degrees Celsius as dangerous, warning that prolonged exposure accompanied by continuous physical activity could result in heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

The weather bureau urged the public and concerned government agencies to adopt appropriate interventions and mitigation measures, particularly water conservation and the efficient management of available water resources, to minimize the potential effects of El Niño.

Meanwhile, House committee on agriculture and food chairman Rep. Wilfrido Mark Enverga has called on the Department of Agriculture (DA) to expedite the release of the remaining P14 billion in government funds intended to cushion the agricultural sector against the effects of the anticipated drought.

“We really have to be prepared for the eventuality of this Super El Niño that we will be facing. It is very, very important that we do what we have to do now. Time is of the essence,” Enverga said in a Philstar report.

The Quezon province lawmaker said a substantial portion of the allocation had already been released, but P14 billion remained available for the government’s El Niño response efforts.

The outstanding amount is part of the P61.99-billion 2026 El Niño action plan, which is intended to finance interventions to protect farmers and the country’s agricultural sector from prolonged drought.

Enverga said the DA was prepared to facilitate the release of the remaining funds, provided it complies with the requirements of the Department of Budget and Management.(MyTVCebu)